Tuesday, January 27, 2009
Monday, January 26, 2009
The Bachelor
Was thinking about making a post making fun of The Bachelor (my wife watches it), but that is below me. Way too easy.
Most people have already seen this, but I am uninspired to write something clever, so I instead offer this, hopefully in settlement for all money I owe you.
http://www.bestviral.com/image/6t/drawing_of_a_spider
Most people have already seen this, but I am uninspired to write something clever, so I instead offer this, hopefully in settlement for all money I owe you.
http://www.bestviral.com/image/6t/drawing_of_a_spider
Saturday, January 24, 2009
Interesting Hand
Ok, time for a little geeky poker talk...
Just played a hand where I called with the nuts on the turn, and I'm pretty sure my call was very very poor.
I have 89tq single suited hearts on the button, 45 bbs deep. UTG had raised to 2 bbs, I just called the button. 5 callers total. Flop a67, two spades, one club. SB leads out for 1/2 pot, utg calls, I have 9 nut outs so I call. Pot is now 25 BBs. Turn is 10-c. SB pots, UTG raises all-in. What do I do? Well, the first thought is, you have the nuts dummy, call. And I know there are spots in omaha where it is correct to fold nuts on the flop, but this is the turn, one card to go, it couldn't possibly be correct to fold on the turn could it? Well, in this case, yes.
Let's look at the situation. SB potted out, UTG reraised all in. Its safe to assume that at least one of these players has 89 as well, so Im basically calling 38bbs to get 70bbs back. So my odds are 70/38 or I need to win about 60% to be correct to call. Well, Im holding the nuts right? But its safe to assume from earlier action that at least one other player, maybe both has 89. So I need to see a safe river card a lot to be right. Well, any club, any spade, any paired board, an 8 or a 9, j,q,k are all potentially bad cards. Obviously they wont all be bad all the time (in this case a lot were were, I was up against 66 with a club draw and 89j with a spade draw), but with that action its safe to assume there are a lot of bad rivers. I dont want to do the math, but Im pretty sure given the earlier action, this should be an easy fold with the nuts, given the only "safe" cards are a 2,3,4,5 of hearts or diamonds (8 cards). Again, all the money is in so there's no decision to make on the river, but given the likelihood at least some of the other cards are bad, its a fold. Next time.
Just played a hand where I called with the nuts on the turn, and I'm pretty sure my call was very very poor.
I have 89tq single suited hearts on the button, 45 bbs deep. UTG had raised to 2 bbs, I just called the button. 5 callers total. Flop a67, two spades, one club. SB leads out for 1/2 pot, utg calls, I have 9 nut outs so I call. Pot is now 25 BBs. Turn is 10-c. SB pots, UTG raises all-in. What do I do? Well, the first thought is, you have the nuts dummy, call. And I know there are spots in omaha where it is correct to fold nuts on the flop, but this is the turn, one card to go, it couldn't possibly be correct to fold on the turn could it? Well, in this case, yes.
Let's look at the situation. SB potted out, UTG reraised all in. Its safe to assume that at least one of these players has 89 as well, so Im basically calling 38bbs to get 70bbs back. So my odds are 70/38 or I need to win about 60% to be correct to call. Well, Im holding the nuts right? But its safe to assume from earlier action that at least one other player, maybe both has 89. So I need to see a safe river card a lot to be right. Well, any club, any spade, any paired board, an 8 or a 9, j,q,k are all potentially bad cards. Obviously they wont all be bad all the time (in this case a lot were were, I was up against 66 with a club draw and 89j with a spade draw), but with that action its safe to assume there are a lot of bad rivers. I dont want to do the math, but Im pretty sure given the earlier action, this should be an easy fold with the nuts, given the only "safe" cards are a 2,3,4,5 of hearts or diamonds (8 cards). Again, all the money is in so there's no decision to make on the river, but given the likelihood at least some of the other cards are bad, its a fold. Next time.
Update
missing my wife. bored here, she'll be home tomorrow though. dogs are happy, they keep getting walks cuz im bored and they look like they are too.
Friday, January 16, 2009
I need followers
C'mon, who wants to be my first fan? You could be like the guy who claims they discovered every band and who likes to brag about how they used to listen to that band at some dingy club. Yay you!
Nancy Pelosi is actually kind of funny. If you are my first follower, go to Pelosi's youtube page and check out her capitol hill cats video. It's slow, but it definitely delivers the goods.
Nancy Pelosi is actually kind of funny. If you are my first follower, go to Pelosi's youtube page and check out her capitol hill cats video. It's slow, but it definitely delivers the goods.
Thursday, January 15, 2009
Dow Puts @ 100
Brutal brutal market. No signs of hope. Analysts had to go and blow any chance of a rally by pointing out the market's massive rallies after the country's worst recession/depression years. Kiss of death. Loading up on more Dow Puts @ 100 strike price.
Wednesday, January 14, 2009
Supah Bowl
4 teams left - Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Philadelphia, Arizona. You're kidding right? 4 teams that no matter how you mix up the matchups, I would tell my wife that I will join her shopping rather than watch the 3 o'clock game. I'm sure the NFL team is busy putting together story lines about each team, they're actually easy to see - Baltimore, rookie QB, defense wins championships; Pittsburgh, Super Bowl legacy, Roeth playing through injuries and back in the Super Bowl; Arizona - Kurt Warner, Edge + never been even close before; Philadelphia - Donovan McNabb, the Phillies world series title as a wild card.
But really - I don't think I'm going to watch the games this weekend, and the Super Bowl will be about as interesting to me (and America) as when Pittsburgh beat Seattle in Super Bowl XXwho cares? Think about it - Arizona v. Baltimore - Roger Goodell cringes at the thought.
Looks like my dvr will be recording the Puppy Bowl on February 1.
But really - I don't think I'm going to watch the games this weekend, and the Super Bowl will be about as interesting to me (and America) as when Pittsburgh beat Seattle in Super Bowl XXwho cares? Think about it - Arizona v. Baltimore - Roger Goodell cringes at the thought.
Looks like my dvr will be recording the Puppy Bowl on February 1.
Open letter to Marcus Schrenker
On today's edition of cnn.com, there is a link to "Nominate Your Hero". You, Marcus Schrenker, could have been my hero - the gusto, the James Bond-like plan of faking your own death... brilliant.
But, sir, your complete failure in execution baffles me. You had a great idea, but you took the amount of time a graduating high school senior spends on math homework drawing up your plan. First, putting the plane on auto-pilot... what were you thinking? Did you think you suddenly flew through a time portal to 1930 where forensic science involved poking a dead guy with a stick? Second, how were you going to explain the lack of body? Wouldn't it have made more sense to pretend you were bailing out and everyone would assume the body was missing, presumed dead? Were you hoping for a fiery inferno and that they'd think your body somehow completely burned up in the flames? That doesn't really happen to small planes in what I like to call the real world... Third, your escape/hide plan was juvenile. If you're going to create national news, maybe have a better on-the-run plan than injuring yourself skydiving and checking into a hotel claiming to have been in a canoeing accident? C'mon, you didn't even make this fun, you could have been on the run for weeks before they definitively knew you were alive. Hell, the unabomber evaded capture for twenty years! You couldn't even make it 24 hours without being identified. Poor effort sir, poor effort.
Marcus Schrenker, you could have been my hero. Instead, you are a man with a great idea but lousy, lousy execution.
But, sir, your complete failure in execution baffles me. You had a great idea, but you took the amount of time a graduating high school senior spends on math homework drawing up your plan. First, putting the plane on auto-pilot... what were you thinking? Did you think you suddenly flew through a time portal to 1930 where forensic science involved poking a dead guy with a stick? Second, how were you going to explain the lack of body? Wouldn't it have made more sense to pretend you were bailing out and everyone would assume the body was missing, presumed dead? Were you hoping for a fiery inferno and that they'd think your body somehow completely burned up in the flames? That doesn't really happen to small planes in what I like to call the real world... Third, your escape/hide plan was juvenile. If you're going to create national news, maybe have a better on-the-run plan than injuring yourself skydiving and checking into a hotel claiming to have been in a canoeing accident? C'mon, you didn't even make this fun, you could have been on the run for weeks before they definitively knew you were alive. Hell, the unabomber evaded capture for twenty years! You couldn't even make it 24 hours without being identified. Poor effort sir, poor effort.
Marcus Schrenker, you could have been my hero. Instead, you are a man with a great idea but lousy, lousy execution.
Tuesday, January 13, 2009
The Beginning
And thus it begins. Not with a bang, but with a whimper.
If you ever want to feel really depressed about the youth of today, go read some Two Plus Two forum "levels". They are sad on multiple levels (hmmmm... I really need a different word here). For those who don't know (everyone), a "level" seems to be a practical joke or basically when someone is taking the piss. The word is overused on Two Plus Two forums almost as much as "amazing" is overused on The Bachelor (thank you wife for making me sit through that, I try for her sake not to make fun of the show while she's watching it, but it's almost painful sometimes not to.).
Well, anyway these "levels" are never funny. It's generally someone pretending to have some lame/backwards logic poker story, and then you get about 10 posts of regulars saying this is the funniest thing they've ever read (it's not) and then about 10 posts of people challenging the original poster (the "OP") that his story is false and showing how they know that. Oh my god. So basically you have one group with a bad sense of humor and another group that not only can't see when someone is (badly) taking the piss, but then they feel the need to challenge that person. The youth of America....
I'm on the grind. I vowed to never redeposit and of course busto'ed my roll on a combination of playing at stakes that are more fun and tilt. not once but twice, once after my last deposit and a great run, once after taking FTPs up to a good amount. but of course I busto'ed.
Will never busto again. Grinded 7 in my last rakeback up to about 320 in a couple weeks of limited play at lo lo lo lo embarrassingly lo limit plo. still haven't stepped up to .25/.50 plo or fullbuying! plan is to maintain control and never ever busto again. last deposit... the saga continues. hopefully i get back to playing 3/6, because while .10/.25 is easy easy easy, the swings aren't exactly whelming.
If you ever want to feel really depressed about the youth of today, go read some Two Plus Two forum "levels". They are sad on multiple levels (hmmmm... I really need a different word here). For those who don't know (everyone), a "level" seems to be a practical joke or basically when someone is taking the piss. The word is overused on Two Plus Two forums almost as much as "amazing" is overused on The Bachelor (thank you wife for making me sit through that, I try for her sake not to make fun of the show while she's watching it, but it's almost painful sometimes not to.).
Well, anyway these "levels" are never funny. It's generally someone pretending to have some lame/backwards logic poker story, and then you get about 10 posts of regulars saying this is the funniest thing they've ever read (it's not) and then about 10 posts of people challenging the original poster (the "OP") that his story is false and showing how they know that. Oh my god. So basically you have one group with a bad sense of humor and another group that not only can't see when someone is (badly) taking the piss, but then they feel the need to challenge that person. The youth of America....
I'm on the grind. I vowed to never redeposit and of course busto'ed my roll on a combination of playing at stakes that are more fun and tilt. not once but twice, once after my last deposit and a great run, once after taking FTPs up to a good amount. but of course I busto'ed.
Will never busto again. Grinded 7 in my last rakeback up to about 320 in a couple weeks of limited play at lo lo lo lo embarrassingly lo limit plo. still haven't stepped up to .25/.50 plo or fullbuying! plan is to maintain control and never ever busto again. last deposit... the saga continues. hopefully i get back to playing 3/6, because while .10/.25 is easy easy easy, the swings aren't exactly whelming.
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