Saturday, January 24, 2009

Interesting Hand

Ok, time for a little geeky poker talk...

Just played a hand where I called with the nuts on the turn, and I'm pretty sure my call was very very poor.

I have 89tq single suited hearts on the button, 45 bbs deep. UTG had raised to 2 bbs, I just called the button. 5 callers total. Flop a67, two spades, one club. SB leads out for 1/2 pot, utg calls, I have 9 nut outs so I call. Pot is now 25 BBs. Turn is 10-c. SB pots, UTG raises all-in. What do I do? Well, the first thought is, you have the nuts dummy, call. And I know there are spots in omaha where it is correct to fold nuts on the flop, but this is the turn, one card to go, it couldn't possibly be correct to fold on the turn could it? Well, in this case, yes.

Let's look at the situation. SB potted out, UTG reraised all in. Its safe to assume that at least one of these players has 89 as well, so Im basically calling 38bbs to get 70bbs back. So my odds are 70/38 or I need to win about 60% to be correct to call. Well, Im holding the nuts right? But its safe to assume from earlier action that at least one other player, maybe both has 89. So I need to see a safe river card a lot to be right. Well, any club, any spade, any paired board, an 8 or a 9, j,q,k are all potentially bad cards. Obviously they wont all be bad all the time (in this case a lot were were, I was up against 66 with a club draw and 89j with a spade draw), but with that action its safe to assume there are a lot of bad rivers. I dont want to do the math, but Im pretty sure given the earlier action, this should be an easy fold with the nuts, given the only "safe" cards are a 2,3,4,5 of hearts or diamonds (8 cards). Again, all the money is in so there's no decision to make on the river, but given the likelihood at least some of the other cards are bad, its a fold. Next time.

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